04 · The Attrition Problem
The cost hiding in plain sight
Attrition is the most consistently underweighted variable in engineering workforce planning. It is invisible until it happens, and expensive when it does. The data tells a clear story that most headcount plans choose to ignore.
How Bad Is the Problem?
According to LinkedIn Workforce Reports, the tech industry carries the highest voluntary attrition rate of any sector at 13.2% annually. Bucketlist Rewards research places the range even higher, at 13–21% depending on company size and stage, with startups typically at the upper end due to stage-specific instability.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the average tenure of a software engineer is approximately two years — compared to a cross-industry average of 4.1 years. At large tech companies, this falls further still, to 1–3 years for engineering and developer roles specifically.
13.2%
Annual attrition rate — the highest of any sector
LinkedIn Workforce Reports
~2 yrs
Average software engineer tenure at a tech company
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32%
of IT professionals say they are likely to change jobs in the next 12 months
Bucketlist Rewards, 2024
45%
of tech employees who left their jobs cited compensation as a primary factor
Gartner Research
The True Cost of an Engineering Departure
Replacing an engineer is not simply the cost of recruiting a replacement. It is a compounding loss across multiple dimensions.
The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) estimates replacement cost at 50–60% of annual salary as a conservative baseline. Harvard Business Review research puts the figure at the higher end — up to 200% for senior, specialised roles — when the full knowledge and productivity loss is accounted for. The Work Institute's 2024 Retention Report uses 33.3% of base salary as a minimum estimate.
For a team of 20 engineers with an average fully-loaded cost of £130,000 and a 13.2% attrition rate, the annual attrition cost is:
Planning Error to Avoid
Most headcount plans model growth hiring without modelling attrition backfill as a separate budget line. This creates a falsely optimistic plan — one that looks like headcount growth but is actually partially treading water. A 20-person team planning to hire 6 in-year may be netting only 3–4 new engineers after attrition replacements are factored in.
Why Engineers Leave — and What It Costs to Keep Them
Understanding attrition drivers is the first step to managing them. The research identifies three consistent causes:
Compensation falling behind market: Gartner found that 45% of departures cite compensation as the primary reason. In fast-moving engineering markets, a salary structure that was competitive in 2022 may be at the 25th percentile by 2025. Annual benchmarking is not optional — it is a retention strategy.
Lack of career growth: A Korn Ferry survey found that 33% of employees leave due to boredom and the need for new challenges. For engineers specifically, this manifests as stagnant technical work, lack of scope expansion, and limited paths to Staff or Principal levels.
Poor management: Gallup's research consistently identifies management quality as the primary driver of engagement. The Gallup 2024 Global Workforce Report estimated that disengaged employees cost the global economy $9.8 trillion, or 9% of global GDP in lost productivity.
Businesses are expected to lose $430 billion by 2030 due to low talent retention. Currently, they are losing $1.8 trillion every year in productivity from turnover.
Bucketlist Rewards — citing Work Institute 2024 Retention Report data